Was Elvis Andrus's 2016 breakout for real?Īt the same time, though, there’s at least some evidence that outperforming a run differential isn’t a complete fluke. The safest bet for a team’s future record is looking at past results, and many of these results do not see a bright future for the 2017 Rangers.

This is probably why projections aren’t terribly high on them: FanGraphs projects a record of 83-79 - much closer to their 2016 Pythagorean record - and a three-way tie for second place in the AL West. It would be borderline miraculous if the Rangers won close games at anything approaching this rate in 2017, and in all likelihood they will regress back to the mean. Close wins are nice, but consistently winning in such situations is usually untenable. This was hardly an invisible trend, as writers like BtBS’s Evan Davis noted the team’s incredible luck well before the season ended. As Garry Fraley of the Dallas News wrote, the team’s 36-11 record in one-run games was nothing short of historic. The simplest and most obvious explanation of this wild disparity between actual wins and losses and pythagorean projections (particularly in 2016) comes down to close games.

It may be meaningless that a team outperformed its run differential by at least five games in two consecutive years, but it’s also at least worth knowing. Texas won 88 games, but had an expected win/loss record of 83-79, essentially the same as the 2016 team.

Given the vast disparity between a 95-win total and an 82-win probability, it’s worth asking just how good the Rangers actually were, and if we should expect success or failure in 2017.īefore going any further, it’s important to note that the Rangers also outperformed their differential in 2015 as well. According to Baseball-Reference’s Pythagorean win expectancy, Texas had the run differential of a mere 82-win team. The 2016 Texas Rangers won 95 games (and their division) easily, but there was always evidence that this team was a paper tiger. But to some, at least, this wasn’t terribly surprising.

The Toronto Blue Jays easily defeated the Texas Rangers, knocking the American League team with the best record out of the postseason almost before it began. Anyone who appreciated (A) Jose Bautista’s bat flip in the 2015 ALDS and (B) Rougned Odor’s punch to Bautista’s face during the 2016 regular season was probably pretty disappointed when this budding rivalry flamed out in a three-game sweep last October.

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